| FORECASTING OF PPE'S FOR COVID-19 OUTBREAK | |||||||||||||||||||
| S# | Items Description | Set | Purpose | Formula* | HCWs / Patients (A) |
No. of Quarantine / Isolation facilities / sites (B) |
Total HCWs/Patients/Facilties (C=AxB) |
No. of PPE/per individual or Facility/day (D) |
Estimated duration 84 days (12 weeks) (E) |
Total Quantity Required (F=CxDxE) |
Buffer (%) (G) |
*Buffer Stock (H=FxG/100) |
Quantity req. Including Buffer (I=F+H) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surgical masks | A | PPEs for Routine use | Set A* = No. of Health Care Workers (HCW) X No. of PPE sets X Estimated Days in Outbreak | 30 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 84 | 7,560 | 40 | 3,024 | 10,584 | ||||||
| 2 | Gloves | 30 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 84 | 7,560 | 40 | 3,024 | 10,584 | |||||||||
| 3 | Disposable caps | 30 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 84 | 7,560 | 40 | 3,024 | 10,584 | |||||||||
| 4 | Disposable gowns | 30 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 84 | 7,560 | 40 | 3,024 | 10,584 | |||||||||
| 5 | Disposable shoe covers | 30 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 84 | 7,560 | 40 | 3,024 | 10,584 | |||||||||
| 6 | Tyvek suits | B | PPEs for Specialized use | Set B* = No. of Health Care Workers (HCWs) X No. of PPE sets X Estimated Days in Outbreak | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 2100 | 40 | 840 | 2,940 | ||||||
| 7 | Goggles | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 2100 | 40 | 840 | 2,940 | |||||||||
| 8 | Face shields | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 2100 | 40 | 840 | 2,940 | |||||||||
| 9 | Respirator N95 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 2100 | 40 | 840 | 2,940 | |||||||||
| 10 | Surgical gown | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 2100 | 40 | 840 | 2,940 | |||||||||
| 11 | Surgical masks (for patients) | C | Miscellaneous | Approximation**: | 100 | 1 | 100 | 4 | 84 | 4 | 40 | 160 | 560 | ||||||
| 12 | Hand sanitizers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 84 | 4 | 40 | 160 | 560 | ||||||||||
| 13 | Biohazard bags | 1 | 1 | 10 | 84 | 4 | 40 | 160 | 560 | ||||||||||
| 14 | Respirator N95 (for Lab workers) | 15 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 84 | 4 | 40 | 160 | 560 | |||||||||
| 15 | Powered air-purifying respirator | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 160 | 560 | ||||||||||
*References: 1. Hashikura M, Kizu J. 2009. Stockpile of personal protective equipment in hospital settings: preparedness for influenza pandemics. Am J Infect Control. 37:703-707. (https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(09)00657-9/fulltext) 2. Naval Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU3) and USAID Egypt. 2011. Module 2: Principles of product selection and evaluation, stock planning of essential IC supplies. Program to Improve Quality and Safety of Healthcare in Egypt, Basic Infection Control Training Course (http://reprolineplus.org/system/files/resources/IPC_M11_Programs.pdf) ** Approximations: 1. 100 patients at one facility to change surgical mask 4 times a day 2. 5 hand senitizers / facility/day 3. 10 Biohazard bags/facility/day 4. 2 powered air-purifying respirators/facility The above estimations has been based on CDC guidelines on "Estimated Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Needed for Healthcare Facilities" https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/ppe/calculator.html Formulas: Total HCW = HCW X No. of quarantine/ Isolation facilities /sites Total Quantity Required = Total HCW * No. of PPE * Estimated days (12 Weeks) Buffer Stock = Total Quantity Required * Buffer % Quantity Required including Buffer = Total Quantity Required + Buffer % |
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| Notes: 1. This is a living tool based on guidance available through international literature for forecasting of PPE's during differenct pandemics 2. Provsion for 40% to 60% buffer has been given catering for unexpected vast outbreak |
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